Guess’ Inc. (GES) – Don’t Be So Quick to Call it Dead

Guess’ Inc. (NYSE: GES) is -60.10% lower on its value in year-to-date trading and has touched a low of $3.64 and a high of $23.58 in the current 52-week trading range. The GES stock was last observed hovering at around $8.93 in the recent trading session, with the current gains setting it 0.22% off its average median price target of $13.00 for the next 12 months. It is also 39.0% off the consensus price target high of $15.00 offered by 5 analysts, but current levels are 8.5% higher than the price target low of $10.00 for the same period.

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At last check, trading at $9.15, the stock is -5.92% and -2.09% below its SMA20 and SMA50 respectively. However, with a current trading volume of 0.58 million and changing 2.46% at the moment leaves the stock -38.30% off its SMA200. GES registered -44.77% loss for a year compared to 6-month loss of -60.45%. The firm has a 50-day simple moving average (SMA 50) of $10.19 and a 200-day simple moving average (SMA200) of $13.15.

The stock witnessed a -12.54% gain in the last 1 month and extending the period to 3 months gives it a 3.96%, and is -8.13% down over the last 5 days. If we measure the stock’s price variations over the week and the month, we find that the volatility rates stand at 6.88% over the week and 7.19% over the month.

Guess’ Inc. (GES) has around 15800 employees, a market worth around $617.87M and $2.40B in sales. Fwd P/E is 7.93. Distance from 52-week low is 151.37% and -61.20% from its 52-week high. The company has generated returns on investments over the last 12 months (12.70%).

Guess’ Inc. (GES) Analyst Forecasts

Analyst recommendations provided by FactSet shows that the consensus forecast for Guess’ Inc. (GES) is a “Overweight”. 5 analysts offering their recommendations for the stock have an average rating of 2.40, where 3 rate it as a Hold and 0 think it is a “Overweight”. 2 of the analysts rate the stock as a “Buy”. 0 analysts have rated the stock as a Sell or Underperform.

Guess’ Inc. quarterly earnings per share for the current quarter are estimated at -$0.57 with sales reaching $374.32M over the same period.The EPS is expected to grow by 454.10% this year, but quarterly earnings will post -23.60% year-over-year.

Guess’ Inc. (GES) Top Institutional Holders

214 institutions hold shares in Guess’ Inc. (GES), with 26.87M shares held by insiders accounting for 39.75% while institutional investors hold 123.53% of the company’s shares. The shares outstanding are 65.72M, and float is at 41.61M with Short Float at 22.01%. Institutions hold 74.43% of the Float.

The top institutional shareholder in the company is FMR, LLC with over 9.46 million shares valued at $64.03 million. The investor’s holdings represent 13.99% of the GES Shares outstanding. As of Mar 30, 2020, the second largest holder is Blackrock Inc. with 6.62 million shares valued at $44.82 million to account for 9.79% of the shares outstanding. The other top investors are Dimensional Fund Advisors LP which holds 5.17 million shares representing 7.65% and valued at over $35.0 million, while Vanguard Group, Inc. (The) holds 6.70% of the shares totaling 4.53 million with a market value of $30.68 million.

Guess’ Inc. (GES) Insider Activity

A total of 17 insider transactions have happened at Guess’ Inc. (GES) in the last six months, with sales accounting for 3 and purchases happening 14 times. The most recent transaction is an insider sale by Bolla Gianluca, the company’s Director. SEC filings show that Bolla Gianluca sold 10,000 shares of the company’s common stock on Dec 11 at a price of $19.56 per share for a total of $0.2 million. Following the sale, the insider now owns 75552.0 shares.

Guess’ Inc. (GES): Who are the competitors?

The company’s main competitors (and peers) include Carter’s Inc. (CRI) that is trading -9.90% down over the past 12 months. Nordstrom Inc. (JWN) is -48.45% down on the 1-year trading charts. Short interest in the company’s stock has risen 10.48% from the last report on May 14, 2020 to stand at a total of 8.2 million short shares sold with a short interest ratio of 4.3.

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