Heat Check: Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) Vs. Medley Management Inc. (MDLY)

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (NYSE: HGV) shares are -35.45% down in the year-to-date (YTD) period and have moved 7.92% or $1.63 higher in the latest trading session. However, stock’s trailing 12-month performance remains nearly +168.12% lower. Comparatively, the stock is -36.70% down YTD and 3.06% over the trailing 3-month period. If we look at the shorter duration, its week performance is 8.72% and 8.45% over the month.

Analyst Recommendations

On September 25, 2019, Janney recommended the HGV stock is a Neutral, while earlier, Credit Suisse had Resumed the stock as a Outperform on May 21, 2020. 6 analysts offering the recommendations for the stock have a consensus rating of 2.40 to suggest that the HGV stock is a “Moderate Buy. 0 of the 6 analysts rate the stock as a “Sell”, while 0 has rated it as “Underweight”. 3 recommend buying, with 0 rating it as an Overweight.

The stock currently trades at $22.20 and analysts tracking its performance over the next 12 months have a consensus estimate price target of $25.58. The forecasts give the Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. stock a price target range of $35.00 on the higher side while at least one analyst think the stock could plunge to a low of $20.00. The two limits represent an upside potential of 36.57% or -11.0%.

Earnings Forecast

Analysts estimate the earnings to decrease -31.30% in the current quarter to -$0.12, down from the $0.59 reported in the same quarter a year ago. For the current year, earnings should grow to an average of $0.07, down -42.60% from $2.42 reported last year. Analysts also offered guidance for the next financial quarter, with their average projected EPS at between -$0.03 and $0.61. Wall Street estimates earnings per share to be at an average of $1.73 for the next year.

Insider Transactions Summary

According to SEC data, total insider shares purchases at the company stands at 14 over the last 12 months, while SEC filings reveal that there have been 32 insider sales over the same period. Insiders have purchases 161,690 shares while those sold by company executives and officers stand at 45,018. The last 3 months have seen insiders trade a total of 0 and 1,368 in purchases and sales respectively.

Hollkamp Barbara L., sold 2,000 shares worth $67120.0 at $33.56 per share on Sep 09. The insider had earlier sold another 2,000 HGV shares valued at $69800.0 on Dec 09. The shares were sold at $34.90 per share.

Medley Management Inc. (NYSE:MDLY), on the other hand, is trading around $0.87 with a market cap of $28.02M and analyst research firms have a positive stance on its shares. Some analysts are even forecasting -$0.14 per share in earnings this year on a short term (1 year) basis.

Let us briefly look at the Medley Management Inc. (MDLY) financials, with a focus on its operating details as indicated in its earnings report for the last quarter.

Company balance sheet and cash flow

MDLY’s operating margin was negative on the trailing 12 months basis, remaining steady at -16.10%, while the operating expenses over the recent quarter were at $0.3 million. This represented a 96.5% of the company’s total revenues which amounted $8.58 million. With this in place, we can see that the company’s diluted EPS declined -$1.31 on the year-over-year period, shrinking to -$1.16 as given in the last earnings report.

The cash flow from operating activities totaled -$1.04 million, significantly higher than the -$1.37 million reported in the year-ago quarter. The company’s free cash flow for the quarter was -$1.05 million.

Insider activity

Insiders have transacted a total of 4 times at Medley Management Inc. over the last 6 months, with insider purchases undertaken 4 times and accounting for 78,555 shares. Insider sales totaled 0 shares over the same period, with these deals completed in 0 transactions. Looking at these numbers, we realize that net purchases over that period are 4.0 shares. Insiders now hold a total of 384.86k shares after the latest sales, with 25.60% net shares purchased.

Major holders

Insiders own 2.90% of the company shares, while shares held by institutions stand at 20.10% with a share float percentage of 6.19M. Investors are also buoyed by the number of investors in a company, with Medley Management Inc. having a total of 32 institutions that hold shares in the company. The top two institutional holders are American Financial Group Inc. with over 0.58 million shares worth more than $0.45 million. As of Jun 29, 2020, American Financial Group Inc. held 9.09% of shares outstanding.

The other major institutional holder is Renaissance Technologies, LLC, with the investment firm holding over 0.17 million shares as of Jun 29, 2020. The firm’s total holdings are worth over $0.13 million and represent 2.67% of shares outstanding.