This Could Be A Brutal Week For American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO), Novavax Inc. (NVAX)

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) shares are -18.37% down in the year-to-date (YTD) period and have moved 5.26% or $0.6 higher in the latest trading session. However, stock’s trailing 12-month performance remains nearly +83.63% lower. Comparatively, the stock is -20.35% down YTD and 31.00% over the trailing 3-month period. If we look at the shorter duration, its week performance is 7.14% and 12.68% over the month.

Analyst Recommendations

On July 30, 2020, Citigroup recommended the AEO stock is a Buy, while earlier, JP Morgan had Upgrade the stock as a Overweight on August 12, 2020. 17 analysts offering the recommendations for the stock have a consensus rating of 2.50 to suggest that the AEO stock is a “Moderate Buy. 1 of the 17 analysts rate the stock as a “Sell”, while 1 has rated it as “Underweight”. 7 recommend buying, with 1 rating it as an Overweight.

The stock currently trades at $12.00 and analysts tracking its performance over the next 12 months have a consensus estimate price target of $13.32. The forecasts give the American Eagle Outfitters Inc. stock a price target range of $20.00 on the higher side while at least one analyst think the stock could plunge to a low of $7.00. The two limits represent an upside potential of 40.0% or -71.43%.

Earnings Forecast

Analysts estimate the earnings to decrease -180.00% in the current quarter to -$0.17, down from the $0.39 reported in the same quarter a year ago. For the current year, earnings should grow to an average of -$0.34, down -14.00% from $1.48 reported last year. Analysts also offered guidance for the next financial quarter, with their average projected EPS at between $0.16 and $0.58. Wall Street estimates earnings per share to be at an average of $0.97 for the next year.

Insider Transactions Summary

According to SEC data, total insider shares purchases at the company stands at 33 over the last 12 months, while SEC filings reveal that there have been 26 insider sales over the same period. Insiders have purchases 472,507 shares while those sold by company executives and officers stand at 260,322. The last 3 months have seen insiders trade a total of 227,801 and 118,793 in purchases and sales respectively.

Kessler Charles F, a Global Brand President-AE at the company, sold 70,000 shares worth $0.48 million at $6.87 per share on Apr 03. The Global Brand President-AE had earlier sold another 35,000 AEO shares valued at $0.37 million on Jun 02. The shares were sold at $10.50 per share.

Novavax Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX), on the other hand, is trading around $107.35 with a market cap of $6.84B and analyst research firms have a negative stance on its shares. Analysts predict that the stock will reach $227.60 and spell out a more modest performance – a 52.83% return. Some analysts are even forecasting $9.08 per share in earnings this year on a short term (1 year) basis.

Let us briefly look at the Novavax Inc. (NVAX) financials, with a focus on its operating details as indicated in its earnings report for the last quarter.

Company balance sheet and cash flow

NVAX’s operating expenses over the recent quarter were at -$17.03 million. This represented a 147.91% of the company’s total revenues which amounted $35.54 million. With this in place, we can see that the company’s diluted EPS declined -$0.30 on the year-over-year period, shrinking to -$1.69 as given in the last earnings report.

In terms of the balance sheet & cash flow as of (Sep 2020), the total assets figure advanced to $932.23 million from $328.07 million over the previous quarter. Short term investments amounted to $77.9 million while total current assets were at $636.38 million. The cash flow from operating activities totaled $92.52 million, significantly higher than the -$80.62 million reported in the year-ago quarter. The company’s free cash flow for the quarter was $88.64 million.

Insider activity

Insiders have transacted a total of 61 times at Novavax Inc. over the last 6 months, with insider purchases undertaken 34 times and accounting for 202,410 shares. Insider sales totaled 197,330 shares over the same period, with these deals completed in 27 transactions. Looking at these numbers, we realize that net purchases over that period are 7.0 shares. Insiders now hold a total of 222.25k shares after the latest sales, with 5.10% net shares purchased.

Major holders

Insiders own 0.20% of the company shares, while shares held by institutions stand at 53.00% with a share float percentage of 55.24M. Investors are also buoyed by the number of investors in a company, with Novavax Inc. having a total of 130 institutions that hold shares in the company.