Vista Outdoor Inc. (VSTO) Vs. Outlook Therapeutics Inc. (OTLK): Which Is Riskier?

Vista Outdoor Inc. (NYSE: VSTO) shares are 159.09% up in the year-to-date (YTD) period and have moved -4.63% or -$0.94 lower in the latest trading session. However, stock’s trailing 12-month performance remains nearly +351.75% lower. Comparatively, the stock is -14.23% down YTD and 99.59% over the trailing 3-month period. If we look at the shorter duration, its week performance is -6.92% and 13.93% over the month.

Analyst Recommendations

On July 08, 2020, B. Riley FBR recommended the VSTO stock is a Neutral, while earlier, Monness Crespi & Hardt had Reiterated the stock as a Buy on August 06, 2020. 6 analysts offering the recommendations for the stock have a consensus rating of 2.50 to suggest that the VSTO stock is a “Moderate Buy. 0 of the 6 analysts rate the stock as a “Sell”, while 0 has rated it as “Underweight”. 2 recommend buying, with 0 rating it as an Overweight.

The stock currently trades at $19.38 and analysts tracking its performance over the next 12 months have a consensus estimate price target of $28.50. The forecasts give the Vista Outdoor Inc. stock a price target range of $36.00 on the higher side while at least one analyst think the stock could plunge to a low of $23.00. The two limits represent an upside potential of 46.17% or 15.74%.

Earnings Forecast

For the current year, earnings should grow to an average of $1.91, up 8.00% from $0.24 reported last year. Analysts also offered guidance for the next financial quarter, with their average projected EPS at between $0.35 and $0.67. Wall Street estimates earnings per share to be at an average of $1.74 for the next year.

Insider Transactions Summary

According to SEC data, total insider shares purchases at the company stands at 23 over the last 12 months, while SEC filings reveal that there have been 16 insider sales over the same period. Insiders have purchases 564,415 shares while those sold by company executives and officers stand at 38,446. The last 3 months have seen insiders trade a total of 68,693 and 0 in purchases and sales respectively.

The CEO had earlier bought another 35,000 VSTO shares valued at $0.25 million on May 13. The shares were bought at $7.11 per share.

Outlook Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:OTLK), on the other hand, is trading around $0.71 with a market cap of $96.15M and analyst research firms have a negative stance on its shares. Some analysts are even forecasting -$0.45 per share in earnings this year on a short term (1 year) basis.

Let us briefly look at the Outlook Therapeutics Inc. (OTLK) financials, with a focus on its operating details as indicated in its earnings report for the last quarter.

Company balance sheet and cash flow

OTLK’s operating expenses over the recent quarter were at -$11.88 million. With this in place, we can see that the company’s diluted EPS declined -$0.03 on the year-over-year period, shrinking to -$0.20 as given in the last earnings report.

In terms of the balance sheet & cash flow as of (Sep 2020), the total assets figure advanced to $30.24 million from $13.17 million over the previous quarter. The cash flow from operating activities totaled -$19.71 million, significantly higher than the -$26.35 million reported in the year-ago quarter. The company’s free cash flow for the quarter was -$19.71 million.

Insider activity

Insiders have transacted a total of 3 times at Outlook Therapeutics Inc. over the last 6 months, with insider purchases undertaken 3 times and accounting for 3,237,959 shares. Insider sales totaled 0 shares over the same period, with these deals completed in 0 transactions. Looking at these numbers, we realize that net purchases over that period are 3.0 shares.

Major holders

Insiders own 15.10% of the company shares, while shares held by institutions stand at 1.40% with a share float percentage of 54.48M. Investors are also buoyed by the number of investors in a company, with Outlook Therapeutics Inc. having a total of 0 institutions that hold shares in the company.