Unsafe At Current Price? – Abraxas Petroleum Corporation (AXAS), Sientra Inc. (SIEN)

Abraxas Petroleum Corporation (NASDAQ: AXAS) shares are -42.38% down in the year-to-date (YTD) period and have moved 7.32% or $0.01 higher in the latest trading session. However, stock’s trailing 12-month performance remains nearly +124.78% lower. Comparatively, the stock is -63.22% down YTD and 1.81% over the trailing 3-month period. If we look at the shorter duration, its week performance is 14.55% and -2.74% over the month.

Analyst Recommendations

On March 09, 2020, Stifel recommended the AXAS stock is a Hold, while earlier, Canaccord Genuity had Downgrade the stock as a Hold on March 10, 2020. 2 analysts offering the recommendations for the stock have a consensus rating of 3.30 to suggest that the AXAS stock is a “Hold. 1 of the 2 analysts rate the stock as a “Sell”, while 0 has rated it as “Underweight”. 0 recommend buying, with 0 rating it as an Overweight.

The stock currently trades at $0.20. The forecasts give the Abraxas Petroleum Corporation stock a price target range of $0.53 on the higher side while at least one analyst think the stock could plunge to a low of $0.10. The two limits represent an upside potential of 62.26% or -100.0%.

Earnings Forecast

Analysts estimate the earnings to decrease -800.00% in the current quarter to -$0.02, down from the $0.02 reported in the same quarter a year ago. For the current year, earnings should grow to an average of -$0.13, down -63.60% from $0.04 reported last year. Analysts also offered guidance for the next financial quarter, with their average projected EPS at between -$0.03 and $0. Wall Street estimates earnings per share to be at an average of -$0.1 for the next year.

Insider Transactions Summary

According to SEC data, total insider shares purchases at the company stands at 7 over the last 12 months, while SEC filings reveal that there have been 0 insider sales over the same period. Insiders have purchases 247,660 shares while those sold by company executives and officers stand at 0. The last 3 months have seen insiders trade a total of 0 and 0 in purchases and sales respectively.

WATSON ROBERT L G, a President/CEO at the company, bought 35,380 shares worth $9906.0 at $0.28 per share on Feb 07. The VP – Contracts and Marketing had earlier bought another 35,380 AXAS shares valued at $9906.0 on Feb 07. The shares were bought at $0.28 per share. Schwartz Dirk A (VP – Business Development) bought 35,380 shares at $0.28 per share on Feb 07 for a total of $9906.0 while Krog George William Jr, (VP Chief Accounting Officer) bought 35,380 shares on Feb 07 for $9906.0 with each share fetching $0.28.

Sientra Inc. (NASDAQ:SIEN), on the other hand, is trading around $3.81 with a market cap of $188.21M and analyst research firms have a positive stance on its shares. Analysts predict that the stock will reach $6.61 and spell out a more modest performance – a 42.36% return. Some analysts are even forecasting -$1.99 per share in earnings this year on a short term (1 year) basis.

Let us briefly look at the Sientra Inc. (SIEN) financials, with a focus on its operating details as indicated in its earnings report for the last quarter.

Company balance sheet and cash flow

SIEN’s operating expenses over the recent quarter were at $19.76 million. This represented a -58.76% of the company’s total revenues which amounted $12.45 million. With this in place, we can see that the company’s diluted EPS declined -$0.68 on the year-over-year period, shrinking to -$1.10 as given in the last earnings report.

In terms of the balance sheet & cash flow as of (Sep 2020), the total assets figure advanced to $185.18 million from $222.85 million over the previous quarter. The cash flow from operating activities totaled -$46.6 million, significantly higher than the -$48.63 million reported in the year-ago quarter. The company’s free cash flow for the quarter was -$48.79 million.

Insider activity

Insiders have transacted a total of 9 times at Sientra Inc. over the last 6 months, with insider purchases undertaken 6 times and accounting for 166,302 shares. Insider sales totaled 16,765 shares over the same period, with these deals completed in 3 transactions. Looking at these numbers, we realize that net purchases over that period are 3.0 shares. Insiders now hold a total of 1.83M shares after the latest sales, with 10.00% net shares purchased.

Major holders

Insiders own 1.90% of the company shares, while shares held by institutions stand at 80.70% with a share float percentage of 48.40M. Investors are also buoyed by the number of investors in a company, with Sientra Inc. having a total of 137 institutions that hold shares in the company. The top two institutional holders are Deerfield Management Company, L.P. (Series C) with over 4.16 million shares worth more than $16.11 million. As of Jun 29, 2020, Deerfield Management Company, L.P. (Series C) held 8.27% of shares outstanding.

The other major institutional holder is Blackrock Inc., with the investment firm holding over 3.23 million shares as of Jun 29, 2020. The firm’s total holdings are worth over $12.5 million and represent 6.42% of shares outstanding.