Summarizing The Case For American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL), Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)

American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ: AAL) shares are -54.50% down in the year-to-date (YTD) period and have moved -3.97% or -$0.54 lower in the latest trading session. However, stock’s trailing 12-month performance remains nearly +58.18% lower. Comparatively, the stock is -57.60% down YTD and 16.31% over the trailing 3-month period. If we look at the shorter duration, its week performance is -2.90% and 17.36% over the month.

Analyst Recommendations

On June 17, 2020, Cowen recommended the AAL stock is a Outperform, while earlier, Raymond James had Upgrade the stock as a Mkt Perform on July 27, 2020. 20 analysts offering the recommendations for the stock have a consensus rating of 3.30 to suggest that the AAL stock is a “Hold. 7 of the 20 analysts rate the stock as a “Sell”, while 1 has rated it as “Underweight”. 3 recommend buying, with 1 rating it as an Overweight.

The stock currently trades at $13.05 and analysts tracking its performance over the next 12 months have a consensus estimate price target of $11.56. The forecasts give the American Airlines Group Inc. stock a price target range of $27.00 on the higher side while at least one analyst think the stock could plunge to a low of $1.00. The two limits represent an upside potential of 51.67% or -1205.0%.

Earnings Forecast

Analysts estimate the earnings to decrease -1.60% in the current quarter to -$5.85, down from the $1.42 reported in the same quarter a year ago. For the current year, earnings should grow to an average of -$19.18, down -61.80% from $4.9 reported last year. Analysts also offered guidance for the next financial quarter, with their average projected EPS at between -$5.99 and -$0.76. Wall Street estimates earnings per share to be at an average of -$2.74 for the next year.

Insider Transactions Summary

According to SEC data, total insider shares purchases at the company stands at 19 over the last 12 months, while SEC filings reveal that there have been 19 insider sales over the same period. Insiders have purchases 1,106,639 shares while those sold by company executives and officers stand at 173,810. The last 3 months have seen insiders trade a total of 79,317 and 0 in purchases and sales respectively.

CAHILL JOHN T, a Director at the company, bought 25,000 shares worth $0.47 million at $18.97 per share on Feb 28. The Director had earlier bought another 4,000 AAL shares valued at $77312.0 on Feb 28. The shares were bought at $19.33 per share. CAHILL JOHN T (Director) bought 25,000 shares at $25.14 per share on Feb 24 for a total of $0.63 million while ALBAUGH JAMES F, (Director) bought 10,000 shares on Oct 28 for $0.31 million with each share fetching $31.41.

Ferroglobe PLC (NASDAQ:GSM), on the other hand, is trading around $0.49 with a market cap of $78.88M and analyst research firms have a negative stance on its shares. Some analysts are even forecasting $0 per share in earnings this year on a short term (1 year) basis.

Let us briefly look at the Ferroglobe PLC (GSM) financials, with a focus on its operating details as indicated in its earnings report for the last quarter.

Company balance sheet and cash flow

GSM’s operating margin was negative on the trailing 12 months basis, remaining steady at -25.50%, while the operating expenses over the recent quarter were at $117.09 million. This represented a 62.38% of the company’s total revenues which amounted $311.22 million. With this in place, we can see that the company’s diluted EPS declined -$0.29 on the year-over-year period, shrinking to -$0.19 as given in the last earnings report.

In terms of the balance sheet & cash flow as of (Mar 2020), the total assets figure advanced to $1.53 billion from $1.73 billion over the previous quarter. Short term investments amounted to $5.06 million while total current assets were at $660.91 million. The cash flow from operating activities totaled $89.61 million, significantly higher than the $27.2 million reported in the year-ago quarter. The company’s free cash flow for the quarter was $85.01 million.

Insider activity

Insiders have transacted a total of 0 times at Ferroglobe PLC over the last 6 months, with insider purchases undertaken 0 times and accounting for 0 shares. Insider sales totaled 0 shares over the same period, with these deals completed in 0 transactions. Looking at these numbers, we realize that net purchases over that period are 0.0 shares. Insiders now hold a total of 97.88M shares after the latest sales, with 0.00% net shares purchased.

Major holders

Insiders own 57.83% of the company shares, while shares held by institutions stand at 25.10% with a share float percentage of 71.41M. Investors are also buoyed by the number of investors in a company, with Ferroglobe PLC having a total of 75 institutions that hold shares in the company. The top two institutional holders are Adage Capital Partners GP L.L.C. with over 13.84 million shares worth more than $6.86 million. As of Jun 29, 2020, Adage Capital Partners GP L.L.C. held 8.18% of shares outstanding.

The other major institutional holder is Barrow, Hanley Mewhinney & Strauss, LLC, with the investment firm holding over 5.56 million shares as of Jun 29, 2020. The firm’s total holdings are worth over $2.76 million and represent 3.29% of shares outstanding.