Time To Sell Or More Gains Ahead? – PBF Energy Inc. (PBF), United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL)

PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE: PBF) shares are -72.71% down in the year-to-date (YTD) period and have moved -8.15% or -$0.76 lower in the latest trading session. However, stock’s trailing 12-month performance remains nearly +64.93% lower. Comparatively, the stock is -74.82% down YTD and -25.31% over the trailing 3-month period. If we look at the shorter duration, its week performance is -8.25% and -1.38% over the month.

Analyst Recommendations

On May 19, 2020, Barclays recommended the PBF stock is a Underweight, while earlier, Goldman had Downgrade the stock as a Sell on June 24, 2020. 17 analysts offering the recommendations for the stock have a consensus rating of 3.20 to suggest that the PBF stock is a “Hold. 6 of the 17 analysts rate the stock as a “Sell”, while 0 has rated it as “Underweight”. 3 recommend buying, with 1 rating it as an Overweight.

The stock currently trades at $8.56 and analysts tracking its performance over the next 12 months have a consensus estimate price target of $10.80. The forecasts give the PBF Energy Inc. stock a price target range of $19.00 on the higher side while at least one analyst think the stock could plunge to a low of $4.00. The two limits represent an upside potential of 54.95% or -114.0%.

Earnings Forecast

Analysts estimate the earnings to decrease -7.00% in the current quarter to -$1.59, down from the $0.66 reported in the same quarter a year ago. For the current year, earnings should grow to an average of -$7.32, down -34.30% from $0.9 reported last year. Analysts also offered guidance for the next financial quarter, with their average projected EPS at between -$2.44 and $0.72. Wall Street estimates earnings per share to be at an average of -$1.03 for the next year.

Insider Transactions Summary

According to SEC data, total insider shares purchases at the company stands at 48 over the last 12 months, while SEC filings reveal that there have been 26 insider sales over the same period. Insiders have purchases 6,843,080 shares while those sold by company executives and officers stand at 144,003. The last 3 months have seen insiders trade a total of 308,516 and 39,461 in purchases and sales respectively.

Control Empresarial de Capital, a Add’l Rep. Persons-see Ex.99-1 at the company, bought 103,500 shares worth $0.83 million at $8.04 per share on Jul 30. The Add’l Rep. Persons-see Ex.99-1 had earlier bought another 50,000 PBF shares valued at $0.4 million on Jul 31. The shares were bought at $8.02 per share. Inversora Carso, S.A. de C.V. (Add’l Rep. Persons-see Ex.99-1) bought 150,000 shares at $7.37 per share on Mar 31 for a total of $1.1 million while Inversora Carso, S.A. de C.V., (Add’l Rep. Persons-see Ex.99-1) bought 465,256 shares on Mar 25 for $3.04 million with each share fetching $6.54.

United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL), on the other hand, is trading around $36.00 with a market cap of $10.16B and analyst research firms have a negative stance on its shares. Analysts predict that the stock will reach $41.53 and spell out a more modest performance – a 13.32% return. Some analysts are even forecasting -$22.9 per share in earnings this year on a short term (1 year) basis.

Let us briefly look at the United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) financials, with a focus on its operating details as indicated in its earnings report for the last quarter.

Company balance sheet and cash flow

UAL’s operating margin was negative on the trailing 12 months basis, remaining steady at -0.90%, while the operating expenses over the recent quarter were at $2.37 billion. This represented a -60.95% of the company’s total revenues which amounted $1.48 billion. With this in place, we can see that the company’s diluted EPS declined -$5.79 on the year-over-year period, growing to $4.02 as given in the last earnings report.

In terms of the balance sheet & cash flow as of (Sep 2020), the total assets figure advanced to $54.9 billion from $53.05 billion over the previous quarter. Short term investments amounted to $958.0 million while total current assets were at $10.04 billion. The cash flow from operating activities totaled -$67.0 million, significantly lower than the $4.63 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. The company’s free cash flow for the quarter was -$2.06 billion.

Insider activity

Insiders have transacted a total of 10 times at United Airlines Holdings Inc. over the last 6 months, with insider purchases undertaken 6 times and accounting for 13,784 shares. Insider sales totaled 28,404 shares over the same period, with these deals completed in 4 transactions. Looking at these numbers, we realize that net purchases over that period are 2.0 shares. Insiders now hold a total of 1.05M shares after the latest sales, with 3.10% net shares purchased.

Major holders

Insiders own 0.30% of the company shares, while shares held by institutions stand at 62.50% with a share float percentage of 289.96M. Investors are also buoyed by the number of investors in a company, with United Airlines Holdings Inc. having a total of 865 institutions that hold shares in the company.