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iQIYI Inc. (IQ) Vs. PagerDuty Inc. (PD): Which Is Riskier?

iQIYI Inc. (NASDAQ: IQ) shares are 7.67% up in the year-to-date (YTD) period and have moved 4.99% or $1.08 higher in the latest trading session. However, stock’s trailing 12-month performance remains nearly +56.65% lower. Comparatively, the stock is -17.35% down YTD and 27.27% over the trailing 3-month period. If we look at the shorter duration, its week performance is 15.79% and 4.75% over the month.

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Analyst Recommendations

On August 14, 2020, CLSA recommended the IQ stock is a Underperform, while earlier, New Street had Downgrade the stock as a Neutral on August 14, 2020. 23 analysts offering the recommendations for the stock have a consensus rating of 2.30 to suggest that the IQ stock is a “Moderate Buy. 2 of the 23 analysts rate the stock as a “Sell”, while 1 has rated it as “Underweight”. 8 recommend buying, with 0 rating it as an Overweight.

The stock currently trades at $22.73 and analysts tracking its performance over the next 12 months have a consensus estimate price target of $22.85. The forecasts give the iQIYI Inc. stock a price target range of $216.84 on the higher side while at least one analyst think the stock could plunge to a low of $97.30. The two limits represent an upside potential of 89.52% or 76.64%.

Earnings Forecast

Analysts estimate the earnings to increase 42.00% in the current quarter to -$0.51, up from the -$0.71 reported in the same quarter a year ago. For the current year, earnings should grow to an average of -$1.76, up 6.30% from -$2 reported last year. Analysts also offered guidance for the next financial quarter, with their average projected EPS at between -$0.51 and -$0.42. Wall Street estimates earnings per share to be at an average of -$0.97 for the next year.

PagerDuty Inc. (NYSE:PD), on the other hand, is trading around $36.65 with a market cap of $2.85B and analyst research firms have a positive stance on its shares. Analysts predict that the stock will reach $30.50 and spell out a less modest performance – a -20.16% return. Some analysts are even forecasting -$0.27 per share in earnings this year on a short term (1 year) basis.

Let us briefly look at the PagerDuty Inc. (PD) financials, with a focus on its operating details as indicated in its earnings report for the last quarter.

Company balance sheet and cash flow

PD’s operating margin was negative on the trailing 12 months basis, remaining steady at -31.00%, while the operating expenses over the recent quarter were at $56.39 million. This represented a -13.26% of the company’s total revenues which amounted $49.79 million. With this in place, we can see that the company’s diluted EPS declined -$0.15 on the year-over-year period, shrinking to -$0.37 as given in the last earnings report.

In terms of the balance sheet & cash flow as of (Jul 2020), the total assets figure advanced to $466.32 million from $435.4 million over the previous quarter. Short term investments amounted to $211.35 million while total current assets were at $407.31 million. The cash flow from operating activities totaled -$0.18 million, significantly higher than the -$7.57 million reported in the year-ago quarter. The company’s free cash flow for the quarter was -$2.9 million.

Insider activity

Insiders have transacted a total of 67 times at PagerDuty Inc. over the last 6 months, with insider purchases undertaken 18 times and accounting for 1,043,301 shares. Insider sales totaled 8,305,104 shares over the same period, with these deals completed in 49 transactions. Looking at these numbers, we realize that net purchases over that period are -31.0 shares. Insiders now hold a total of 18.45M shares after the latest sales, with -5.20% net shares purchased.

Major holders

Insiders own 6.10% of the company shares, while shares held by institutions stand at 73.80% with a share float percentage of 64.60M. Investors are also buoyed by the number of investors in a company, with PagerDuty Inc. having a total of 194 institutions that hold shares in the company. The top two institutional holders are ARK Investment Management, LLC with over 5.2 million shares worth more than $148.78 million. As of Jun 29, 2020, ARK Investment Management, LLC held 6.61% of shares outstanding.

The other major institutional holder is Accel Growth Fund IV Associates L.L.C., with the investment firm holding over 4.61 million shares as of Jun 29, 2020. The firm’s total holdings are worth over $131.83 million and represent 5.85% of shares outstanding.

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