This Could Be A Brutal Week For Lipocine Inc. (LPCN), Qudian Inc. (QD)

Lipocine Inc. (NASDAQ: LPCN) shares are 263.73% up in the year-to-date (YTD) period and have moved -5.41% or -$0.08 lower in the latest trading session. However, stock’s trailing 12-month performance remains nearly +365.12% lower. Comparatively, the stock is -41.42% down YTD and 58.08% over the trailing 3-month period. If we look at the shorter duration, its week performance is -2.78% and -18.13% over the month.

Analyst Recommendations

On January 11, 2018, Canaccord Genuity recommended the LPCN stock is a Hold, while earlier, H.C. Wainwright had Reiterated the stock as a Buy on January 12, 2018. 2 analysts offering the recommendations for the stock have a consensus rating of 2.50 to suggest that the LPCN stock is a “Moderate Buy. 0 of the 2 analysts rate the stock as a “Sell”, while 0 has rated it as “Underweight”. 1 recommend buying, with 0 rating it as an Overweight.

The stock currently trades at $1.40. The forecasts give the Lipocine Inc. stock a price target range of $3.00 on the higher side while at least one analyst think the stock could plunge to a low of $3.00. The two limits represent an upside potential of 53.33% or 53.33%.

Earnings Forecast

Analysts estimate the earnings to decrease -85.70% in the current quarter to -$0.06, up from the -$0.12 reported in the same quarter a year ago. Analysts also offered guidance for the next financial quarter, with their average projected EPS at between -$0.07 and -$0.05. Wall Street estimates earnings per share to be at an average of -$0.01 for the next year.

Insider Transactions Summary

According to SEC data, total insider shares purchases at the company stands at 12 over the last 12 months, while SEC filings reveal that there have been 2 insider sales over the same period. Insiders have purchases 562,500 shares while those sold by company executives and officers stand at 60,750. The last 3 months have seen insiders trade a total of 0 and 0 in purchases and sales respectively.

Patel Mahesh V., a CEO and President at the company, bought 40,000 shares worth $15340.0 at $0.38 per share on Dec 31. The Director had earlier bought another 220,000 LPCN shares valued at $69542.0 on Mar 17. The shares were bought at $0.32 per share. Patel Mahesh V. (President and CEO) bought 25,000 shares at $0.40 per share on Dec 10 for a total of $9975.0 while Patel Mahesh V., (CEO and President) sold 43,500 shares on Dec 04 for $17835.0 with each share fetching $0.41.

Qudian Inc. (NYSE:QD), on the other hand, is trading around $1.53 with a market cap of $388.18M and analyst research firms have a negative stance on its shares. Analysts predict that the stock will reach $1.54 and spell out a more modest performance – a 0.65% return. Some analysts are even forecasting -$0.15 per share in earnings this year on a short term (1 year) basis.

Let us briefly look at the Qudian Inc. (QD) financials, with a focus on its operating details as indicated in its earnings report for the last quarter.

Company balance sheet and cash flow

QD’s operating margin was positive on the trailing 12 months basis, remaining steady at 22.30%, while the operating expenses over the recent quarter were at $258.01 million. This represented a -90.73% of the company’s total revenues which amounted $135.28 million. With this in place, we can see that the company’s diluted EPS declined -$0.27 on the year-over-year period, growing to $0.48 as given in the last earnings report.

In terms of the balance sheet & cash flow as of (Jun 2020), the total assets figure advanced to $2.13 billion from $2.64 billion over the previous quarter. Short term investments amounted to $207.31 million while total current assets were at $1.95 billion. The company’s free cash flow for the quarter was $0.0.

Major holders

Insiders own 1.60% of the company shares, while shares held by institutions stand at 33.60% with a share float percentage of 151.40M. Investors are also buoyed by the number of investors in a company, with Qudian Inc. having a total of 208 institutions that hold shares in the company. The top two institutional holders are Acadian Asset Management with over 5.62 million shares worth more than $9.56 million. As of Jun 29, 2020, Acadian Asset Management held 13.04% of shares outstanding.

The other major institutional holder is Greenwoods Asset Management Ltd, with the investment firm holding over 5.47 million shares as of Jun 29, 2020. The firm’s total holdings are worth over $9.3 million and represent 12.69% of shares outstanding.