Why Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (UGP) Stock Could See Much Higher Prices Ahead

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (NYSE: UGP) is -13.25% lower on its value in year-to-date trading and has touched a low of $1.97 and a high of $5.20 in the current 52-week trading range. The question becomes, what are the chances the stock will make a comeback and enjoy potential growth. Why not look at analysts view on what the future holds for the stock. The UGP stock was last observed hovering at around $4.24 in the last trading session, with the day’s loss setting it -0.31% off its average median price target of $4.42 for the next 12 months. It is also 23.98% off the consensus price target high of $5.17 offered by 10 analysts, but current levels are -10.39% lower than the price target low of $3.56 for the same period.


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Currently trading at $3.93, the stock is -7.54% and -10.51% below its SMA20 and SMA50 respectively. However, with a daily trading volume of 4.16 million and changing -7.31% at the moment leaves the stock 5.63% off its SMA200. UGP registered -18.97% loss for a year compared to 6-month gain of 11.02%. The firm has a 50-day simple moving average (SMA 50) of $4.3133 and a 200-day simple moving average (SMA200) of $3.9084.

The stock witnessed a -6.65% loss in the last 1 month and extending the period to 3 months gives it a 1.81%, and is -10.27% down over the last 5 days. If we measure the stock’s price variations over the week and the month, we find that the volatility rates stand at 3.93% over the week and 3.64% over the month.

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (UGP) has around 16024 employees, a market worth around $4.28B and $15.05B in sales. Current P/E ratio is 115.59 and Fwd P/E is 15.29. Profit margin for the company is 0.20%. Distance from 52-week low is 99.49% and -24.42% from its 52-week high. The company has generated returns on investments over the last 12 months (3.60%).

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (UGP) Analyst Forecasts

Analyst recommendations provided by FactSet shows that the consensus forecast for Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (UGP) is a “Buy”. 10 analysts offering their recommendations for the stock have an average rating of 2.20, where 2 rate it as a Hold and 0 think it is a “Overweight”. 8 of the analysts rate the stock as a “Buy”. 0 analysts have rated the stock as a Sell or Underperform.

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. is expected to release its quarterly report on 05/05/2021 and quarterly earnings per share for the current quarter are estimated at $0.07 with sales reaching $4.23B over the same period.The EPS is expected to shrink by -67.50% this year, but quarterly earnings will post -32.10% year-over-year. Quarterly sales are estimated to shrink -26.40% in year-over-year returns.

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (UGP) Top Institutional Holders

114 institutions hold shares in Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (UGP), with institutional investors hold 3.78% of the company’s shares. The shares outstanding are 1.09B, and float is at 749.68M with Short Float at 0.39%. Institutions hold 3.78% of the Float.

The top institutional shareholder in the company is Renaissance Technologies, LLC with over 7.09 million shares valued at $32.13 million. The investor’s holdings represent 15.24% of the UGP Shares outstanding. As of Dec 30, 2020, the second largest holder is Blackrock Inc. with 5.15 million shares valued at $23.33 million to account for 11.07% of the shares outstanding. The other top investors are CIBC Private Wealth Group, LLC which holds 3.57 million shares representing 7.67% and valued at over $16.17 million, while State Street Corporation holds 5.36% of the shares totaling 2.49 million with a market value of $11.3 million.

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Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (UGP): Who are the competitors?

The company’s main competitors (and peers) include Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras (PBR) that is trading -43.41% down over the past 12 months. Braskem S.A. (BAK) is -18.82% down on the 1-year trading charts. Short interest in the company’s stock has risen 80.81% from the last report on Dec 30, 2020 to stand at a total of 0.56 million short shares sold with a short interest ratio of 1.76.

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