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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. (ARI) 2021 Stock Forecast: Bullish Outlook with 0.84% Upside

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. (NYSE: ARI) is 37.60% higher on its value in year-to-date trading and has touched a low of $6.29 and a high of $15.41 in the current 52-week trading range. The question becomes, what are the chances the stock will continue to grow shareholders’ wealth in the market. Here’s what analysts think will happen to its price in the coming time. The ARI stock was last observed hovering at around $15.25 in the last trading session, with the day’s gains setting it 0.12% off its average median price target of $15.00 for the next 12 months. It is also 0.84% off the consensus price target high of $15.50 offered by 6 analysts, but current levels are -9.79% lower than the price target low of $14.00 for the same period.

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Currently trading at $15.37, the stock is 4.88% and 8.25% above its SMA20 and SMA50 respectively. However, with a daily trading volume of 1.5 million and changing 0.79% at the moment leaves the stock 37.62% off its SMA200. ARI registered 72.31% gain for a year compared to 6-month gain of 70.40%. The firm has a 50-day simple moving average (SMA 50) of $13.88 and a 200-day simple moving average (SMA200) of $11.37.

The stock witnessed a 8.16% loss in the last 1 month and extending the period to 3 months gives it a 30.59%, and is 3.78% up over the last 5 days. If we measure the stock’s price variations over the week and the month, we find that the volatility rates stand at 2.36% over the week and 2.16% over the month.

Current P/E ratio is 12.64 and Fwd P/E is 10.68. Profit margin for the company is 44.80%. Distance from 52-week low is 144.36% and -0.26% from its 52-week high. The company has generated returns on investments over the last 12 months (1.40%).

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. (ARI) Analyst Forecasts

Analyst recommendations provided by FactSet shows that the consensus forecast for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. (ARI) is a “Hold”. 6 analysts offering their recommendations for the stock have an average rating of 3.00, where 6 rate it as a Hold and 0 think it is a “Overweight”. 0 of the analysts rate the stock as a “Buy”. 0 analysts have rated the stock as a Sell or Underperform.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. is expected to release its quarterly report on 07/28/2021 and quarterly earnings per share for the current quarter are estimated at $0.33 with sales reaching $66.81M over the same period.The EPS is expected to shrink by -99.20% this year, but quarterly earnings will post -2.30% year-over-year.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. (ARI) Top Institutional Holders

320 institutions hold shares in Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. (ARI), with 1.19M shares held by insiders accounting for 0.85% while institutional investors hold 72.30% of the company’s shares. The shares outstanding are 139.81M, and float is at 138.94M with Short Float at 2.21%. Institutions hold 71.69% of the Float.

The top institutional shareholder in the company is Blackrock Inc. with over 23.66 million shares valued at $264.34 million. The investor’s holdings represent 16.92% of the ARI Shares outstanding. As of Dec 30, 2020, the second largest holder is Vanguard Group, Inc. (The) with 13.64 million shares valued at $152.37 million to account for 9.75% of the shares outstanding. The other top investors are Michigan (State Of) Teachers Retirement System which holds 5.46 million shares representing 3.90% and valued at over $60.99 million, while State Street Corporation holds 3.22% of the shares totaling 4.5 million with a market value of $50.25 million.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. (ARI) Insider Activity

A total of 10 insider transactions have happened at Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. (ARI) in the last six months, with sales accounting for 4 and purchases happening 6 times. The most recent transaction is an insider sale by Agarwal Jai, the company’s CFO, Treasurer and Secretary. SEC filings show that Agarwal Jai sold 15,000 shares of the company’s common stock on Apr 27 at a price of $15.21 per share for a total of $0.23 million. Following the sale, the insider now owns 27120.0 shares.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. disclosed in a document filed with the SEC on Apr 27 that PRESS ERIC (Director) sold a total of 96,360 shares of the company’s common stock. The trade occurred on Apr 27 and was made at $15.17 per share for $1.46 million. Following the transaction, the insider now directly holds 0.21 million shares of the ARI stock.

Still, SEC filings show that on Apr 26, BIDERMAN MARK C (Director) disposed off 7,050 shares at an average price of $14.96 for $0.11 million. The insider now directly holds 68,601 shares of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. (ARI).

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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc. (ARI): Who are the competitors?

The company’s main competitors (and peers) include Realty Income Corporation (O) that is trading 25.40% up over the past 12 months. New York Mortgage Trust Inc. (NYMT) is 97.85% up on the 1-year trading charts. Short interest in the company’s stock has fallen -3.02% from the last report on Apr 14, 2021 to stand at a total of 3.07 million short shares sold with a short interest ratio of 3.19.

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